After the fires: La Gomera in the news

The UK Daily 'The Independent' has an interesting piece of news on La Gomera. Read it here:

http://www.independent.co.uk/travel/news-and-advice/canary-island-forest-fires-all-quiet-in-la-gomera-8182587.html

Hurricane Nadine stronger again

NHC:'HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.6N  37.8W AT 30/0900Z
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT  10 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  979 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  80 KT (150 KM/H) WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.' 

Nadine could affect the Azores again:

Some rain at last in Valle Gran Rey, La Gomera

After another very warm and sunny day the first light shower after a very long time fell in lower Valle Gran Rey,producing a beautiful double rainbow (above) at around 7pm yesterday. The lower part of the valley rarely gets rain, but in the upper valley the winters usually are fresher with more frequent showers. 

This weekend we might get a few more isolated showers in the Canary Islands.

Nadine a hurricane again

She just won't give up: Nadine reached hurricane force (category 1) once again yesterday and is forecast to be around for at least another five days, but gradually weakening. The motion is again in a northerly direction for about 36-48 hours more and after that it is not very clear where she might head. Nadine could affect the Azores again. That's what you call 'going around in circles'. 
For more detailed information click on the NHC link on the top right.

Nadine strengthening again

Tropical storm Nadine just doesn't give up and is now reported to be reaching winds of almost hurricane force again. However the system is too far away from La Gomera now to have any significant effect on our weather.

Unconnected to Nadine a little rain fell in some parts of the island yesterday, but overall the amount was too small to bring about a rapid recovery after the drought. Other parts of the Canary Islands had more luck and even some heavier rainfalls were reported there.

Royals visit La Gomera

The prince and princess of Asturias visited La Gomera yesterday and toured areas affected by the fires. The heir to the Spanish crown expressed his solidarity with the people of La 

Gomera. The visit ended with a short stroll in the still-intact forest of El Cedro.

The turnout at the reception in the village square of Chipude was very small at only about 100+ people (despite a lot of publicity ahead of the visit and calls to attend by the island's president), probably due to the fact that many people in the Canaries see
themselves not as Spanish, but as 'Canarios' who were brutally colonised by Spain more than 500 years ago. More Canary Islands' than Spanish flags were waved by those attending. The overall tone of the visit was very informal and friendly, though.

NEWS: La Gomera fires finally declared 'under control'

The remaining smouldering fires have been officially declared 'under control', but work continues to assure that no 'hot spots' remain.

The fires that started more than seven weeks ago damaged a total area of 3000 hectares or 8% of the island. The national park lost 18%, or 720 hectares and more than 100 houses were damaged or destroyed.

The expected rain (see previous post) should end this sad episode and will help nature to recover.

Tropical Storm Nadine still alive

Rain expected on La Gomera

Tropical storm Nadine is one of the longest-lived weather systems in the Atlantic, and is continuing to head slowly away from the Canary Islands.

A  separate low pressure system that Nadine helped to spawn a few days ago is influencing the weather negatively over much of northern Europe and is expected to be situated over the British Channel by Thursday:

The associated cold front could just reach as far as the Canary Islands and should bring us some rain at last. Even some prolonged and/or heavier downpours with moderate winds and stronger gusts are possible. The low over western Africa did already bring a little badly needed rain in some parts of the Canaries, but if you're planning your holidays let me assure you that here it never rains for long and the little rain we get is warm. 

The HIRLAM model for Thursday looks like this:

Finally the latest from the NHC:

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NADINE ADVISORY NUMBER  51
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142012
500 AM AST TUE SEP 25 2012
...NADINE MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST...
SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.1N 29.6W
ABOUT 435 MI...695 KM SSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NADINE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 29.6 WEST. NADINE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE
SOUTHWEST WITH A REDUCTION IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED LATER
TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 195 MILES...315 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB...29.41 INCHES.

Nadine a tropical storm again (and a future hurricane ?)

Well, this weather system keeps all those interested wondering, but let me state first of all that there is NO DANGER for the Canary Islands, despite some ill-informed reports to the contrary. Nadine has indeed strengthened again to a tropical storm, but is now heading in the opposite direction (i.e. WEST) of most previous forecasts. That means that her 'Ladyship Nadine' has seen enough of the Canaries from a distance and is now slowly sneaking away from us without leaving any 'presents', like rain. Only the NHC can say that scientifically:

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE NADINE WAS AGAIN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL 
STORM NADINE AT 23/1500 UTC. TROPICAL STORM NADINE IS CENTERED 
NEAR 30.6N 25.6W AT 23/1500 UTC OR ABOUT 450 NM S OF THE AZORES 
MOVING W AT 2 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 986 MN. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 50 KT WITH GUST TO 60 KT. PLEASE 
SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED 
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 28N-34W BETWEEN 22W-28W. 

Compare the following image of tropical storm wind probabilities to the previous one posted :

It is almost the exact opposite: Now all the action is expected West, before that East.
We're not giving up hope for a bit of rain yet, as the weather system to the East of the Canary Islands is still pushing out some showers into the Atlantic towards us...
Meteosat had the following picture of water vapour at 1800 UTC (which shows the dry air over the Canaries as well):

Finally here is the OPC prediction for midday Thursday 27-09-12, which gives  long-lived Lady Nadine hurricane status once again:

The latest update from the National Hurricane Centre (0900 UTC):

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NADINE ADVISORY NUMBER  47
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142012
500 AM AST MON SEP 24 2012
...NADINE WEAKENS A LITTLE OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC...
...NO THREAT TO LAND AREAS...

SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.4N 26.9W
ABOUT 455 MI...735 KM S OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NADINE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 26.9 WEST. NADINE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H. A GRADUAL
TURN TOWARD THE WEST  AND WEST-SOUTHWEST WITH SOME INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES...370 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 991 MB...29.26 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.

Will storm Nadine affect La Gomera ?

There is much discussion about a storm system that has been puzzling meteorologists for a good few days. 'Nadine' was born far out in the Atlantic about ten days ago and tracked

towards the Azores reaching hurricane status for a short while. It came to a halt just south of the Azores which suffered strong winds and heavy rain for a while. Now 'Nadine' is heading towards Madeira and the Canary Islands and has been downgraded to a post-tropical storm. The prediction models vary and the future of 'Nadine' is so uncertain that it prompted a statement from the Spanish met. office saying that as of today reliable forecasts can not be given until the system has finally made up its mind and/or dissipates.

Even the weather in Britain and Ireland, as well as in many parts of continental Europe could depend on 'Nadine'. The BBC broadcast a most unusual weather forecast:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/19662959

How and if Nadine will will affect the Canaries and specifically La Gomera is still not clear, as the situation is  very complicated, with dry air coming from the Sahara still floating over and around the Canaries while a low pressure system is forming in Western Afrika and Nadine becoming almost stationary West of us, according to the National Hurricane Centre in Miami, Florida. The NHC's forecasts have proved to be the most reliable so far, but even they admit to great uncertainty. Over the past hours Nadine has 

lost a lot of its convection, but on the other hand is moving over warmer waters. Re-strengthening to a tropical storm can't be excluded. The present storm wind probability:

The OPC forecasts are also a good resource and are usually reliable, here the chart 

     for Monday:

All this gives only a low risk for La Gomera to be affected by strong winds.

RAIN is badly needed here and the chances are that we should get at least some showers over the next few days - either from  bands of showers associated with Nadine or from the low over West Afrika. That is the hope, so we're keeping the fingers crossed.  A  rain warning for up to 15 litres/hour (not that much, really) is in effect for the Eastern Canary Islands for Sunday, which was extended West as far as Tenerife for Monday.

For the whole of the Canaries the government has issued a pre-alert, just in case, but at the time of writing there is no concrete danger expected and skies are blue with hardly any wind. 

With all the uncertainty, however, the situation can change at any time.

I will try and keep you posted if and when new developments happen...

Fires still not completely extinguished

Tomorrow it will be six weeks since the initial fires started. Today they are still smouldering mostly underground in several places, and surfacing every now and again to cause renewed flames. Experts estimate that only the first rains after the summer can put  them out completely.

Meanwhile rebuilding and further cleaning up is in progress. Plans are being drawn up to prevent any future fires to spread as rapidly as they did in the densely populated Upper Valle Gran Rey. These would include the planting of more fire-resistant trees in the centre of the valley, projects to cultivate and irrigate abandoned agricultural land, and the removal of highly inflammable materials (i.e. dead vegetation, building materials, plastic, etc.).

The good news is that the temperature has been dropping considerably during this week and is now back to normal levels for September.

During a tour of the island yesterday the air even felt very fresh while testing a newly-opened walk along a cascading little stream in the beautiful 'El Rejo' area. The water in the stream is pure and tastes really good - and it was as cold as if it had been in a fridge.

The tour also showed the vast areas in all parts of the island that are completely untouched.

Unfortunately I forgot to bring a camera, so I leave you with a photo of 'Chorros de Epina' (our 'holy well') , which is the same as ever today, despite the drought:

For those interested in a accommodation/walking package I include the following link:
http://gomerawalking.co.uk

Benefit show tonight

The 'We Love Nooctua' show with lots of live acts and DJs will be in the harbour of Valle Gran Rey tonight until daybreak tomorrow. The tickets cost 10 Euros, including a free drink, and all proceeds will go to the people affected by the fires on La Gomera.

3000 march in protest in San Sebastian, La Gomera

Considering the island's population of only 22000 and the fact that many couldn't come due work and other commitments, this was a massive turnout. Yesterday's demonstration

was probably the largest the island has ever seen.

Ashes from burnt down houses, burnt twigs from the forest and many banners were deposited at the entrance of the island's government building. 

The main question, why the 'cabildo' (the island government) declared the fires 'under control' (when they clearly weren't) in the face of official warnings of an extreme heat wave and very strong dry winds, remains unanswered. The consequently resulting devastating secondary fires then spread quickly when the hydro-planes had already been sent back to mainland Spain. The island's president had apparently gone on holidays in the middle of this crisis...

A video of the demonstration here:

http://vimeo.com/48659494