Saturday, September 22, 2012

Will storm Nadine affect La Gomera ?

There is much discussion about a storm system that has been puzzling meteorologists for a good few days. 'Nadine' was born far out in the Atlantic about ten days ago and tracked
towards the Azores reaching hurricane status for a short while. It came to a halt just south of the Azores which suffered strong winds and heavy rain for a while. Now 'Nadine' is heading towards Madeira and the Canary Islands and has been downgraded to a post-tropical storm. The prediction models vary and the future of 'Nadine' is so uncertain that it prompted a statement from the Spanish met. office saying that as of today reliable forecasts can not be given until the system has finally made up its mind and/or dissipates.
Even the weather in Britain and Ireland, as well as in many parts of continental Europe could depend on 'Nadine'. The BBC broadcast a most unusual weather forecast:
How and if Nadine will will affect the Canaries and specifically La Gomera is still not clear, as the situation is  very complicated, with dry air coming from the Sahara still floating over and around the Canaries while a low pressure system is forming in Western Afrika and Nadine becoming almost stationary West of us, according to the National Hurricane Centre in Miami, Florida. The NHC's forecasts have proved to be the most reliable so far, but even they admit to great uncertainty. Over the past hours Nadine has 
lost a lot of its convection, but on the other hand is moving over warmer waters. Re-strengthening to a tropical storm can't be excluded. The present storm wind probability:
The OPC forecasts are also a good resource and are usually reliable, here the chart 
     for Monday:

All this gives only a low risk for La Gomera to be affected by strong winds.
RAIN is badly needed here and the chances are that we should get at least some showers over the next few days - either from  bands of showers associated with Nadine or from the low over West Afrika. That is the hope, so we're keeping the fingers crossed.  A  rain warning for up to 15 litres/hour (not that much, really) is in effect for the Eastern Canary Islands for Sunday, which was extended West as far as Tenerife for Monday.
For the whole of the Canaries the government has issued a pre-alert, just in case, but at the time of writing there is no concrete danger expected and skies are blue with hardly any wind. 
With all the uncertainty, however, the situation can change at any time.

I will try and keep you posted if and when new developments happen...

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