Nadine a tropical storm again (and a future hurricane ?)
Well, this weather system keeps all those interested wondering, but let me state first of all that there is NO DANGER for the Canary Islands, despite some ill-informed reports to the contrary. Nadine has indeed strengthened again to a tropical storm, but is now heading in the opposite direction (i.e. WEST) of most previous forecasts. That means that her 'Ladyship Nadine' has seen enough of the Canaries from a distance and is now slowly sneaking away from us without leaving any 'presents', like rain. Only the NHC can say that scientifically:
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE NADINE WAS AGAIN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM NADINE AT 23/1500 UTC. TROPICAL STORM NADINE IS CENTERED NEAR 30.6N 25.6W AT 23/1500 UTC OR ABOUT 450 NM S OF THE AZORES MOVING W AT 2 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 986 MN. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 50 KT WITH GUST TO 60 KT. PLEASE SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 28N-34W BETWEEN 22W-28W.
Compare the following image of tropical storm wind probabilities to the previous one posted :
It is almost the exact opposite: Now all the action is expected West, before that East.
We're not giving up hope for a bit of rain yet, as the weather system to the East of the Canary Islands is still pushing out some showers into the Atlantic towards us...
Meteosat had the following picture of water vapour at 1800 UTC (which shows the dry air over the Canaries as well):
Finally here is the OPC prediction for midday Thursday 27-09-12, which gives long-lived Lady Nadine hurricane status once again:
The latest update from the National Hurricane Centre (0900 UTC):
BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM NADINE ADVISORY NUMBER 47 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012 500 AM AST MON SEP 24 2012 ...NADINE WEAKENS A LITTLE OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC... ...NO THREAT TO LAND AREAS...
SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.4N 26.9W ABOUT 455 MI...735 KM S OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NADINE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 26.9 WEST. NADINE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST AND WEST-SOUTHWEST WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES...370 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 991 MB...29.26 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE.
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