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Monday, September 24, 2012

Nadine a tropical storm again (and a future hurricane ?)

Well, this weather system keeps all those interested wondering, but let me state first of all that there is NO DANGER for the Canary Islands, despite some ill-informed reports to the contrary. Nadine has indeed strengthened again to a tropical storm, but is now heading in the opposite direction (i.e. WEST) of most previous forecasts. That means that her 'Ladyship Nadine' has seen enough of the Canaries from a distance and is now slowly sneaking away from us without leaving any 'presents', like rain. Only the NHC can say that scientifically:

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE NADINE WAS AGAIN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL 
STORM NADINE AT 23/1500 UTC. TROPICAL STORM NADINE IS CENTERED 
NEAR 30.6N 25.6W AT 23/1500 UTC OR ABOUT 450 NM S OF THE AZORES 
MOVING W AT 2 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 986 MN. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 50 KT WITH GUST TO 60 KT. PLEASE 
SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED 
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 28N-34W BETWEEN 22W-28W. 
Compare the following image of tropical storm wind probabilities to the previous one posted :



It is almost the exact opposite: Now all the action is expected West, before that East.
We're not giving up hope for a bit of rain yet, as the weather system to the East of the Canary Islands is still pushing out some showers into the Atlantic towards us...
Meteosat had the following picture of water vapour at 1800 UTC (which shows the dry air over the Canaries as well):



Finally here is the OPC prediction for midday Thursday 27-09-12, which gives  long-lived Lady Nadine hurricane status once again:




The latest update from the National Hurricane Centre (0900 UTC):

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NADINE ADVISORY NUMBER  47
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142012
500 AM AST MON SEP 24 2012
...NADINE WEAKENS A LITTLE OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC...
...NO THREAT TO LAND AREAS...
SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.4N 26.9W
ABOUT 455 MI...735 KM S OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NADINE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 26.9 WEST. NADINE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H. A GRADUAL
TURN TOWARD THE WEST  AND WEST-SOUTHWEST WITH SOME INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES...370 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 991 MB...29.26 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.

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