Friday, February 10, 2017

A windy and rainy weekend in store

Some forecasting models predict this scenario for 6am Sunday morning
SEE latest update (click this)

Wet and windy weekend weather is forecast to affect the Canaries from midnight tonight, even though the sun is shining and there are only a few clouds in Valle Gran Rey as I'm writing this.

A storm depression of 988 hPa is west off the Portuguese coast now and beginning to track south, bringing it closer to the Canary Islands. The depression is expected to be of 994 hPa tomorrow and north of these islands, before moving a bit further away to the north-northeast early on Sunday with an expected 992 hPa. Some models predict that the main depression may spawn-off a secondary but short-lived low very close and just to the north of us (see chart above), which would complicate the situation and may bring higher potential for precipitation.
What all this means is that La Gomera and the rest of the Canaries will be in for spells of rain during Saturday and on Sunday until afternoon. Some of the rain may be heavy in places and isolated thunderstorms can be expected as several frontal systems will pass through the islands. Further, strong westerly winds are expected with gale gusts and seas will be rough with a combination of 3-4 m swell and wind-blown waves.
The following status 'yellow' weather alerts have been issued for La Gomera:
Saturday, Feb. 11th 2017: 
From 00:00 am until 6 pm: Westerly winds gusting to 75 km/h or more in exposed areas.
Sunday, Feb. 12th 2017: 
From 00:00 am until 12 noon: Rain intensity up to 20mm/hour
From 3 am until 3 pm: Winds gusting to 80 km/h or more in exposed areas.
+++ A status 'orange' alert for Sunday from 4 am to 11 am: Gusts of 90+ km/h
The Canarian government has also issued weather alerts and La Gomera's government has called for extreme caution.
While the above weather forecast is not dramatic and not unusual for this time of the year, please bear in mind that the situation is still developing, possibly changing at any time, and that local phenomena and conditions can always spring a surprise.
Please do not put yourself at risk by hiking or walking in the mountains and postpone any such activity until at least a day after the weather has improved. Avoid unnecessary travel and if you must venture out, do so with extreme caution as there's bound to be debris on the roads, and falling stones and rocks are likely due to the wind and rain, especially after the long dry spell we've had. 
Late Sunday and Monday the worst will have passed but the weather will still be unsettled. Also note that warnings may be changed at short notice.
...and the just-issued OPC forecast chart for Sunday noon has confirmed a secondary low of 996hPa (below)

No comments :